The Softest Path Ever Drawn

# The Softest Path Ever Drawn

After the 2026 draw, Netherlands coach Ronald Koeman was photographed leaving the hall. His mouth: an almost-invisible curve. Not a smile. The poker face of a man holding pocket aces. Netherlands' group: a European minnow, an Asian qualifier, an Oceania debutant. Their knockout path to the final: avoiding every top-5 team.

The 48-team format creates absurd bracket asymmetries. 12 groups. 8 third-place teams advancing. Some knockout paths are carpets. Some are minefields. 2018 Croatia reached the final without facing Brazil, Germany, Argentina, Spain, or France — all on the other side of the bracket. They weren't the second-best team in the world. They were one of the best-drawn teams.

Netherlands: Van Dijk at 36 (last dance), Frenkie de Jong at 29 (peak), Cody Gakpo creating. Not a top-tier contender. But if the bracket loves them — they could walk further than anyone expects. Portugal similar: Bruno Fernandes, Ruben Dias, Rafael Leao, and a 41-year-old Ronaldo on the bench.

Prediction: one of Netherlands or Portugal reaches the semifinal. Not because they're the strongest. Because the draw handed them the softest path in World Cup history.